Almost every year I share my picks and link to full analysis for the NCAA Tournament before taking off two days of work to watch the games. This year’s going to be different for the reasons below, but best of luck in your respective bracket this year. This post will continually be updated.
Update 1 (3/13): Quick reactions on Selection Sunday
Since we’re on pace for the wildest March Madness on record (both for me, Alexa and potentially the NCAA), I’m drafting this post about 2 hours before the clock strikes midnight on 3/1/22. I traditionally take PTO for the first two days of the Round of 64 from 12:02 on Thursday to midnight on Sunday. But we’re trading in a seat at the bar for a bed in a recovery room, with a third member of the DeSiena family whose first sensory experience outside of the womb – with any luck – will sound like this.
When else would this kid be due to arrive then during the opening tip of March Madness? The chance that I won’t be able to host a bracket or share my take on how you can win yours is near 100%, but it won’t matter: the parity in college basketball this year is well-documented. To put into perspective how competitive this tournament will be: In the history of the NCAA, six teams ranked in the Top 10 have only lost in the single day a couple of times, the last being in the mid-1940s.
Last Saturday, there were seven.
Gonzaga (#1), Arizona (#2), Auburn (#3), No. 4 Purdue (#4), Kansas (#5), Kentucky (#6), and Texas Tech (#9) all lost to lower-ranked opponents in spectacular fashion. These weren’t major upsets to terrible schools. For the most part, they lost to teams that will also make the NCAA tournament. But I’ll forgive you if you didn’t pick St. Mary’s (#17 to thoroughly dismantle Drew Timme (All-American) and Chet Holmgren (presumptive #2-#3 pick in the NBA draft).
So it’s a perfectly reasonable assumption that rankings might mean a little less in 2022 than in recent years when clear favorites (and UCLA!) were marching right into the Final Four. In this vein, I took the current Top 10 teams in the country (as of 3/1) and laid out their weaknesses below.
Selection Sunday: Quick Reactions
- Toughest Region: East. Baylor’s in for the fight of their life. I predicted a Championship repeat until I saw that meat-grinder of a schedule. They’d potentially face North Carolina in the Round of 32, St. Mary’s (who just upset #1 Gonzaga last week), Texas (dark-horse of the East Region), before having to play Kentucky (see below) to get to the Final Four against Gonzaga? Two of their best players are hurt. This is a phenomenal team but it would take a near-impossible climb to get to the championship game.
- Easiest Region: South. Haven’t heard this discussed yet, but you’re kicking yourself if you’re Duke or Kentucky. Losing in the ACC & SEC tournament probably cost you the 2 seed here against the weakest #1 (Arizona…see below). Instead, the weakest #2 (Villanova) gets this bracket and they don’t match up with the Wildcats’ run-and-gun game. Kansas will now feast on any team not named Tennessee in the Final Four.
- Tough break for Texas A&M. I don’t have a problem with them not getting in, but the Selection Committee should make a public statement confirming the conference tournaments don’t affect the bubble unless you win your tournament. Something like “Where you are the first week of March is where you are, and nothing you do (except win your tournament securing an automatic bid) will help you.” That saves hopeful bubble teams who upset 3 ranked teams in 3 days (but lose in the final) a ton of angst. The Aggies lost eight straight games in January (Bad…but with no bad losses) and then won seven straight in February-March before losing in the SEC Championship. (Good). Both the eye test and the NET say they are a more-worthy tournament team than a few that made it in. Speaking of which…
- The ACC is in rough shape. The Big 10 worse. I wish I attended the steak dinner I presume the B1G commissioner bought the Selection Committee last week. Michigan should arguably not be in the tournament at all, and owe their whopping 15 games played against Quad 1 opponents to the strength of their conference. And they were an abysmal 5-10 in those games. Michigan should be lucky to get a play-in, let alone an 11-seed. Ohio State had the most Quad 2 losses of any B1G team to make the tournament. They’re a 7 seed? They should be a 9. If you want to pick upsets, start with the teams in the B1G.
How to Beat…
- Gonzaga. St. Mary’s showed every tournament team how to beat Gonzaga: Use the entire 24-second clock, put a stronger guy on Chet Holmgren to force him out of the lane, and pray Drew Timme has a bad game. Get one of the two of them in foul trouble and you’ll have an easier time closing out on Rasir Bolton, who’s unconscious from three if you leave him open. If they draw a physical #3 or #4 in their region (Texas, Texas Tech) and we could see them go down in the Sweet 16.
(Updated 3/13: They have the 2nd-best path to the Final Four. If any teams can contain Timme and Holmgren, they’re not in this region.)
- Duke. Speaking of going down in the Sweet 16: Duke’s got the both the lowest floor and the highest ceiling of any team in the country. This is Blue Devils team with all the trappings of a squad that falls short in the Coach K era: No clear point guard, star player who doesn’t want the ball enough (Paolo Banchero), and running a motion offense without players going in motion. (Watching them set up an offense is maddening. You’ll count on one hand the amount of screens they set in each half.) On the flip side, five starters will declare for the draft and have a legacy to play for in Coach K’s final year. If 7’1″ Mark Williams gets into foul trouble, the most efficient part of their offense is neutralized. This team plays down to its competition, so it’s the biggest X factor in the tournament this year. Teams with athletic combo guards (Kansas, Arkansas) could expose them early. Duke needs a history-making March from Williams, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Keels.
(Updated 3/13: They lost another high-profile game in the ACC Championship showing no urgency in a legacy-defining season. If they get past Alabama in the Sweet 16, Gonzaga’s guards will make quick work of Keels and Baker on the offensive end.)
- Auburn. This is the most talented team from top to bottom with the probable #1 pick in the draft (Jabari Smith) and a candidate for defensive player of the year (UNC transfer Walker Kessler) leading the way for the eighth best defense in the country. Wendell Greene’s one of the most underrated players in college basketball, and shutting him down makes it much harder for Smith to operate. Auburn’s got the highest floor of any in the Top 10, but so goes Jabari Smith, so goes Auburn.
(Updated 3/13: Texas A&M upset the Tigers in the SEC Quarterfinal with strong performances from Smith, Kessler, and Greene. They get Kansas in the Elite 8, which should be the end of the line.)
- Baylor. Baylor’s short-handed win over Kansas the last week in February was one of the strongest wins by any team all year and they’re banged up. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua’s out for the season, LJ Cryer’s a lights-out three point shooter with a foot injury (naturally not the best combination), and guys are having to fill in 40 extra minutes split between the rest of the team. This team truly goes nine or ten deep though, so we might see the first team since the Joakim Noah Florida Gators win consecutive National Championships. Adam Flagler and James Akinjo seem to be in every SportsCenter highlight and everything’s trending up. Teams with hot shooters can expose a defense slow to close out on the three, so an Auburn or a Villanova can get to them in the Elite 8 or Final Four.
(Updated on 3/13: A team with injuries draws the toughest region. A Baylor repeat would have to be a miracle.)
- Kentucky. No team’s putting it together going into March like Kentucky. They’re the most dangerous team not named Baylor and should win the SEC tournament next week. While Auburn might have the projected #1 draft pick, Kentucky has the best player in the country in Oscar Tshiebwe. Add one of the deadliest three point shooters (5th year-senior Kellen Grady), an inconsistent but lighting fast point guard TyTy Washington, and my pick for most underrated players in the NCAA (a tie between Keion Brooks, Jr. & Sahvir Wheeler) and John Calipari might cut down the nets. I’m skeptical of how careless they are with the ball, and it’s mostly due to Washington being a freshman. Teams that play them strong on defense (Duke absolutely blew them out in the first game of the season on a neutral floor) can unravel them. (Update 3/13: Kentucky didn’t get to the SEC Final due to Tshiebwe getting into foul trouble. They’re still as dangerous.)
- Arizona. A PAC-12 team isn’t getting to the Final Four that isn’t UCLA. And UCLA isn’t getting back to the Final Four. All the credit in the world to Bennedict Mathurin & Kerr Krissa who are absolutely unconscious three-point shooters, but a physical team that holds them to the half-court can finish them off. Sorry Arizona! Your conference has the Big-10 to thank for not being at the bottom of the Power 5.
(Updated 3/13: The luckiest draw I’ve seen a team make in years. They might get to the Final Four if Tennessee doesn’t take them out.)
- Kansas. Bill Self’s squad has its best shot at a national title in a long time. They also have a huge advantage over the other Top 10’s: The starting lineup is made up of mostly upperclassmen and one of them, Ochai Agbaji, is an absolute unit. If you have a guy scoring over 20 PPG and hitting 40% of his shots from three who’s in the conversation for national player of the year (who can do this), you’re going to contend. Rounded off by Dajuan Harris and David McCormack (6’10”, 250 lbs). 3 of their 4 losses are against Top 15 teams, two of which played their best games of the season. You beat them by forcing all the offense through Agbaji and keeping them off the offensive glass.
(Updated 3/13: Kansas’ healthy win over a phenomenal Texas Tech team secured the Big 12 championship. Remy Martin is peaking at the right time. This team is scorching and they have the worst #1 on their side of the bracket. I’m high on Kansas.)
- Purdue. The Boilermakers have the best offensive team in the country, though “offensive” is also an apt description of their terrible defense (Ranked 107). Matt Painter’s team of lethal shooters can (and must) run teams out of the gym and hit shots in transition, a strategy that requires almost everything to go their way. That’s a tough ask against fantastic on-ball defenders that Duke, Texas Tech, or Arkansas can throw at them. Considering how many teams can get hot in March, this’ll be a popular pick for an early high-seed loss. That’s a shame, because Jaden Ivey is a Top 5 pick in this year’s draft and so much fun to watch.
(Updated 3/13: Like clockwork, they were exposed by Iowa in the B1G Final.)
- Providence. Like Kentucky, this team is white-hot entering March and clinched first place in the Big East for the first time in history. They’re starting a team of five juniors and seniors not prone to making freshman mistakes like most of these others. They’re 24-3 and play in the Big East, but only two of the losses coming against Quad 1 teams and they don’t have a true bad loss. They play a good inside-out game with Nate Watson and guards Al Durham, Jared Bynum, and AJ Reeves. It’s also an impressive free throw shooting team, so fouling them to extend the game with under a minute to go works to their advantage. They’re also the luckiest team in the country by KenPom, which measures deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and how you’d expect them to perform in each game. Their weak strength of schedule might be their undoing, as beating up in the Georgetowns of the world in the conference doesn’t exactly prepare you to play the Top 68 teams in the country.
(Update 3/13: They were blown out by Creighton in the Big East Tournament. Luck might be running out.)